The main purpose of this paper is to analyze aggregate fluctuations and cyclical comovements in the Mercosur area, as well as to draw conclusions on macroeconomic policy coordination. Our primary concern will be to characterize the fluctuations in GDP. We basically follow the literature on optimum currency areas (OCA) and exchange-rate-regime choice. Therefore, the issues that we discuss here are to a great extent those treated in that literature: the degree of symmetry of the business cycles, the identification of the sources of shocks, volatility, and the interactions between the cyclical movements of output and prices.
Our treatment of cyclical fluctuations, nonetheless, departs from the literature insofar as the emphasis we give to certain factors. This is basically due to the fact that the Mercosur presents a series of particularities that must be incorporated into the analysis. The most relevant are: first, that the Mercosur is a relatively recent regional integration agreement in which the degree of economic and trade integration is still low; second, its members are instability-prone medium-income countries and some are highly dollarized; and third, the countries have been hit by sizable shocks in the last five years and this has been detrimental to the integration process.