Is the Brazilian bond market underdeveloped? What are the main determinants of the current situation of the bond market, and what can be done to promote its development? Although the bond market represents a large proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP) in developed countries, it seems to be underdeveloped in emerging markets. In the particular case of Brazil, it is widely known that firms do not have access to enough credit at a reasonable cost.
The discussion about the level of real interest rates and its causes is an important policy issue that is being dealt with by several Brazilian governments. High real interest rates are often listed as an impediment for greater economic growth and credit availability. We will discuss some of the causes of high real interest rates, list some of the policies that have been implemented to fight high real interest rates, and present economic initiatives that may still be lacking in order to reduce rates even further, resulting in cheaper corporate credit and in the growth in the domestic bond market. It is important to say that government credibility seems to be at the root of high interest rates. A Worker’s Party (PT) administration was seen as potentially fiscally irresponsible and as a possible promoter of debt default during the 2002 election campaign. Brazilian interest rates and sovereign spreads reached record highs in 2002 but, even before the election, the situation improved after the PT’s “Letter to Brazilians” that reassured that none of this would happen,. The Lula administration has so far fulfilled its commitment and Brazil is currently (May 2006) enjoying its lowest real interest rates since the inception of the Real Plan economic stabilization plan in 1994 with the US dollar trading at very low prices. Yet, more is needed to bring interest rates down even more and to acquire the investment grade status. This background discussion is important and will be dealt with in the Brazilian financial sector background in section 2 of this paper.