In recent months the global financial system has undergone a period of unprecedented instability. The current financial crisis has brought into sharp focus the need for robust empirical analysis of bank default prediction models. The contagion currently affecting the banking sector has its roots in traditional banking crises, i.e. inflated asset valuations and inadequate risk management. The difference, however, between past crises and that which appears to have began in earnest in August 2007 is the presence of the credit derivatives (CDs) market. The transmission of credit risk via these types of instruments appears, according to international financial regulators, to have amplified the current global financial crisis by offering a direct and unobstructed mechanism for channeling defaults among a variety of types of financial institutions.
Whilst the causes of this crisis are fairly well recognized, the mechanism of transmission of shocks between CDs markets and the banking sector is not so well understood from an empirical perspective. Particularly, much less is known about the effects of the credit default swap (CDS) market on the viability of systemically relevant financial institutions. The academic and practitioner literature have not yet reached firm conclusions on the financial stability implications of CDS. Consequently, we require much more analysis of the linkages between CDSs and systemic risk. Admittedly, the recent dramatic developments in financial markets prompt the need for a thorough re-examination of the “mechanics” of these instruments as well as their Systemic implications.