This paper contains an analysis of factors affecting the variances of national European bond returns as well as the variances of national European stock returns. We apply the so-called volatility-spillover framework. The variance of the unexpected return of e.g. the German bond market is divided into a part caused by idiosyncratic US (global) bond effects, US stock effects, European (regional) bond effects, European stock effects, and pure German (local) bond effects. Equivalently, the variance of the unexpected German stock return is divided into the same five effects in addition to pure German stock effects. Bond and stock markets are investigated simultaneously, which - we believe - is new to the volatility-spillover literature. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, we contribute methodologically to the literature by generalizing the volatility-spillover model.
The empirical analysis brings some light on the integration of the European financial markets. Local effects should be weaker, the more integrated the European financial markets are. Financial integration appears to be a major concern of the policy makers in the European Union (EU) as the EU has launched several policy initiatives to obtain financial integration, cf. Hartmann, Maddaloni and Manganelli (2003). Presumably, the introduction of the euro has worked in favor of financial integration. The observed home bias in Europe has decreased in the previous years, cf. e.g. Baele, Ferrando, Hördahl, Krylova and Monnet (2004). This might indicate that the European financial markets have become more integrated. When the importance of country specific effects are low, the potential benefits of diversification are also small. It is believed that stock and bond volatilities are linked via information spillover, cf Fleming, Kirby and Ostdiek (1998) for a model and analysis of US stock, bond, and money markets. Fleischer (2004) extends this model to also include the equivalent Australian markets. Here we investigate the European bond and stock market volatility linkages. Finally, we examine how important global and regional effects are for the European bond and equity volatility.