Unemployment in Germany has increased regularly over the last decades. While the unemployment rate goes up in recessions, it does not recover to the same degree in booms. To put it differently, unemployment is no longer a cyclical phenomenon but a structural problem. In 2005, around five million persons or 13.0% of the civilian labor force were registered as unemployed (Statistisches Bundesamt, 2006). Reduction of this high unemployment rate is one of the most important and challenging issues the German society is confronted with.
The risk of unemployment is especially high among lows-skilled and unskilled individuals and the correlation of the level of education and the risk of unemployment has increased in recent years. In 2004, around one fifth of low skilled workers were unemployed, compared to merely one out of twenty in the 1970s (Reinberg and Hummel, 2005). This gap in the risk of unemployment between highly educated workers and workers with low education is relatively large in Germany by international standards (OECD, 2006). Moreover, since the early 1970s, the unemployment rates of natives and migrants in Germany diverge. In 2005, the average share of unemployed migrants has been 25.2% in comparison to the much lower 11.9% among natives (Bundesagentur für Arbeit, 2006). This may be partly explained by the education and skill level of foreign nationals in Germany, which is rather low, but could also result from additional, ethnic-specific disadvantages on the labor market.
Understanding the processes that change the amount of carbon stored in the ocean and in the land biota, with their implications for future climate and ecology, is a fundamental goal of earth-system science. I have developed, refined, and applied several approaches that combine data analysis and modeling to better understand processes affecting carbon fluxes.
(1) Using a database of tree-ring widths from some 40,000 trees, I looked at the impact of large volcanic eruptions in the past millennium on tree growth globally. I found a decline in growth north of 45° N lasting for several years after eruptions, presumably due to eruption-associated cooling, and no significant impact at lower latitudes. This argues against the hypothesis that the increased diffuse-light fraction due to volcanic aerosols greatly increased plant carbon uptake after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, suggesting that other explanations are needed for the slow increase in atmospheric CO2 levels in the early 1990s.
Do households move for jobs or fun, and where do they go when they move? We address these questions using the 1970-2000 U.S. Census. Based on a panel of quality of life and business environment measures, households prefer MSAs in warm coastal areas and non-metropolitan locations, while firms prefer large, growing cities. In addition, cities with improving business environments acquire increasing shares of workers, especially workers with high levels of human capital; cities with improving consumer amenities become relatively more populated by retirees.
Further analysis of individual level migration decisions indicates that regardless of marital status, young, highly educated households tend to move towards places with higher quality business environments. This tendency is especially pronounced among highly educated couples who are more subject to job market co-location problems. In contrast, regardless of education, couples near retirement tend to move away from places with favorable business environments and towards places with highly valued consumer amenities. These patterns help explain why areas unattractive to both households and business have struggled, as with upstate New York, while the sunbelt and other regions are thriving.
