Unemployment rates vary over both time and space. In this article we seek to understand why the unemployment rate varies from area to area, using districtlevel data from the Midi-Pyr´en´ees region of France. The unemployment rate in any given area is determined more by national than by local effects (OCDE 1997), and most of the theoretical and empirical work on the subject reflects this (e.g., Artus and Muet 1995). Thus the unemployment rate in the Midi Pyr´en´ees region has evolved in line with the national unemployment rate, rising gradually from 3.2% in 1974 to 11.3% by January 1995. The rise in unemployment occurred despite robust growth in the Toulouse area, which was driven in large part by the rise of the aerospace sector.
Although regional unemployment rates move broadly in line with the national rate, differences across regions tend to persist over long periods of time, and 30% of regional movements in the unemployment rate cannot be explained at the national level (OECD cited by Tervo 1998). The correlation coefficient between the unemployment rates in France’s 22 regions in 1974 and the unemployment rates in 1994 was 0.62 (Maillard 1997, p. 156), which indicates a very substantial degree of persistence in inter-regional differentials in unemployment rates.