The growing number of financial crises during the nineties has generated an important economic literature. Most of it focuses on the determinants of crises, explains why financial crises happens, and tries to predict their occurrence. These papers have widely studied the role of international trade in explaining financial crises, showing in particular the significant role of trade linkages in facilitating the contagion of crises, or more generally testing the importance of trade links on the probability of occurrence of financial crises. A fewer number of authors have shown the implications of such events, by looking generally at the crises’ impacts in terms of output variation. Among others, Gutpa and al. (2004), Noy and Neuberger (2002), Dooley (2000) and Hong and Tornell (2005) study the effects of currency, banking and twin crises on output, and describe the necessary conditions for the output cost to be minimum.
Surprisingly, very little work has been done on the impact of financial crises on international trade, the latter being usually considered as obvious or traditional. Theoretically, a currency crisis may lead to a decrease in imports, and to an increase in exports because of a J-curve effect : the nominal devaluation usually implies a real devaluation, at least to the extent that relative prices do not adjust by the same amount as the nominal exchange rate; this competitiveness gain, by leading to a switch of demand toward home produced goods, may improve the trade balance. On the other hand, a banking crisis, by decreasing the total financing capacity of the economy, may have a recessive impact; this should imply a drop of both exports and imports.