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This paper utilizes unique data to test whether restaurant prices respond to minimum wage changes. We find that restaurant prices unambiguously rise after minimum wage increases are enacted. Furthermore, these price increases are larger for establishments that are more likely to pay the minimum wage.
These results are derived from a panel of store-level restaurant prices that are the basis for the fotxl away from home component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during a three-year period with two federal minimum wage increases, and are corroborated using a longer panel of city-level food away from home pricing from the CPI.
The expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates–the proposition that the long term rate is determined by the market’s expectation of the short-term rate over the holding period of the long-term bond plus a (constant) risk premium–is one of the key economic principles that is at the core of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Indeed, virtually every central bank conducts monetary policy by targeting a short-term rate. However, as noted by Woodford (1999, 2003) and others, the effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on a central bank’s ability to affect longer-term rates that matter most for aggregate demand.
