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Ebook The Impact of Financial Frictions on a Small Open Economy: When Current Account Borrowing Hits a Limit

Submitted by wulan on Tue, 02/02/2010 - 07:31

The evidence of consumption and output collapses in emerging markets is associated with rapid reversals in the current account and thus suggests limited access to international credit. During the 1980s most Latin American countries were essentially excluded from international capital markets after the Mexican debt crisis of 1981. Economic activity, growth and consumption stalled. Beginning in the late 1980s and continuing through the 1990s there was a strong effort to reintegrate Latin American markets into the world economy.

Emerging markets again faced unfavorable problems with external financing in the 1990s. Mexico, in 1994, and Asia, in 1997, experienced rapid reversals in the current account (Milessi-Ferretti and Razin, 1997, 1998; Edwards, 1998). More over, for emerging markets the periods of current account reversals (balance-of-payments crises) were also associated with deep recessions. Calvo (1998) has termed this phenomenon the “sudden stop”.

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Ebook Economic Crisis and the Logistics Industry: Financial Insecurity for Warehouse Workers in the Inland Empire

Submitted by puput on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 07:43

Riverside and San Bernardino counties once led the nation in population growth and economic development; the two county region is now a leader in financial hardship. This paper will show how the Inland Empire’s current development model has placed working families in economic peril. In particular, data will show that the logistics sector’s reliance on low wage warehouse labor produces negative social and economic consequences.

Barack Obama’s presidency offers hope that a change in leadership and strategy will reinvigorate the nation’s economy. How will the Inland Empire recover from the current economic crisis? The region’s economic future is closely tied to investment in the goods movement industry. Proposals to stimulate the economy,by investing in transportation infrastructure, will further expand the region’s logistics sector. Any investment should include a path to middle class jobs for working men and women.

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Ebook Emerging Market Business Cycles Revisited: Learning about the Trend

Submitted by puput on Tue, 06/22/2010 - 02:25

Some of the key stylized facts regarding economic fluctuations in emerging market economies seem at odds with the neoclassical theory of business cycle fluctuations for small open economies. In particular, it has been a challenge for these models to generate a higher variability of consumption relative to output along with a negative correlation between the cyclical components of the trade balance and output as observed in the data.

The present paper underscores learning about the “nature” of shocks in explaining the aforementioned features of emerging market business cycles. To do so, we build a small open economy model in which the agent in an emerging market economy observes all the past and current realizations of TFP shocks and knows the stochastic properties of the distributions of trend growth and transitory components, but does not observe the realizations of these components. Using the available information, she forms expectations about trend growth (or permanent) and transitory (or cycle) components of total factor productivity (TFP, henceforth) shocks using the Kalman filter.

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