In this paper, we focus on the predictability of hedge fund index returns and its eventual application in a fund of hedge funds. There is now a consensus in empirical finance that expected asset returns are, to some extent, predictable, at least for traditional asset classes. However, literature on evidence on return predictability of hedge fund is still in its infancy. Amenc, El Bied and Martellini (2002) were the first to report both statistical and economic significance of predictability in hedge funds returns.
Like Amenc et al. (2002), we use factor models to find evidence of predictability in various hedge fund index returns. Given that the true set of predictive variables is virtually unknown, we extend Amenc et al. (2002) empirical analysis using various forecasting models to analyze hedge fund index returns predictability and its impact to tactical style allocation (TSA) strategies. We take into account a larger number of predictive variables reflecting the stage of the economic cycle, the interest rate environment, and the dynamic trading strategies applied by hedge funds. These variables are able to predict changes in hedge fund index returns. We finally expand the sample period until December 2003.