Prior research in accounting indicates the importance placed by market participants on two features associated with earnings the trend in a firm’s earnings over time, and whether the firms’ earnings meet or beat analysts’ forecasts. For example, Barth, Elliott, and Finn (1999) find that when earnings show consistent increases over time (i.e., exhibit a positive trend), firms are rewarded with a higher price-earnings multiple. Bartov, Givoly, and Hayn (2002) reveal a market valuation premium placed on firms that meet or beat analysts’ earnings forecasts, and Kasznik and McNichols (2002) show that beating these forecasts consistently is particularly valuable. Most of the existing research has separately examined either earnings’ trends or meet/beat performance, with less focus on examining how the market reacts to both factors in combination.
The purpose of our study is to investigate how investors’ react to the combination of earnings trends and performance relative to analysts’ forecasts over multiple periods. We show this reaction is not static, but rather depends on the intertemporal consistency of those two earnings features.