A well-documented empirical regularity of U.S. cyclical fluctuations is the fact that the cross-sectional dispersion of economic returns such as labor income, profits, or stock returns increases significantly during economic downturns. These countercyclical changes in the variance of the distribution of returns imply that economic agents make their decisions in an environment of time-varying uncertainty.
The notion of investment irreversibility provides the traditional mechanism through which changes in uncertainty, by altering the “option value of waiting,” affect the macroeconomy; see for example, Bernanke [1983], McDonald and Siegel [1986], Dixit and Pindyck [1994], and Caballero and Pindyck [1996]. As emphasized by Abel [1983], Abel and Eberly [1999], and Veracierto [2002], however, the effect of uncertainty on aggregate investment can be theoretically ambiguous, because it depends importantly on the assumptions regarding the initial accumulation of capital, market structure, and the equilibrium setting. As a result, the literature on irreversible investment lacks a consensus regarding the effect on economic activity from fluctuations in uncertainty.