The economic importance of China in the world economy is difficult to overstate. Simply by virtue of China's 1.3 billion people it’s economy is large in an absolute terms and is poised to overtake Japan as the world's second largest. Its sustained growth in real per capita GDP, at an average of 8.6 percent from 1978-2007, is high by any standard. While there has been a good deal of economic research done on China, most of it has been on microeconomic issues. Given the pace of globalization and China's role in international economics, surprisingly little research on China has been done on the macroeconomic side by academic economists.
There may be several reasons for this, but two possibilities jump to mind. The first concerns doubts about data quality. In one example of potential measurement error, in revising PPP exchange rates used to deflate nominal GDP, the World Bank revised the real GDP data for China downwards by about 40 percent. On the other hand, following the 2004 Chinese Economic Census, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revised GDP from 1993-2004 upward so that by 2004, nominal and real GDP were modified to be 16 and 6 percent higher, respectively. Whether one believes in the accuracy of these revisions or not, the magnitude of the revisions serve to underscore some of the uncertainty surrounding the data. A second possibility stems from China's ongoing transition from a centrally planned to a market based economy but with continued heavy involvement of the government. Researchers may be skeptical as to whether a transitional economy such as China’s is appropriate for analysis by the current generation of business cycle models. These models are typically solved as approximations around the steady state but one can question whether China has converged to the steady state growth path. In this sense, China may be `too different’ from the typical country that macroeconomists study with the standard toolkit of business cycle models.