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Story - acrobat - 08/27/2008 - 03:40 - 0 comments - 0 attachments
Nature compels us all to move through life. We could not remain stationary however much we wished. Every right-thinking person wants not merely to move through life like a sound producing, perambulating plant, but to develop – to improve – and to continue the development mentally to the close of physical life.
This development can occur only through the improvement of the quality of individual thought and the ideals, actions and conditions that arise as a consequence. Hence a study of the creative processes of thought and how to apply them is of supreme importance to each one of us. This knowledge is the means whereby the evolution of human life on earth may be hastened and uplifted in the process.
Over the last three decades, the major industrialized countries have experienced large increases in elderly population. As fertility rates drop and the baby boom generation becomes old, these countries face a significant population aging. The aging process is expected to accelerate over the next three decades. For advanced countries as a whole, the old dependency rate the share of elderly population aged 65 and above in total population is forecasted to increase from 15% in 2005 to 26% in 2000.
In May, 2001, the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SoA) jointly issued a request for proposals on the research topic “Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios.” The objectives of this request were to develop a research relationship with selected persons to investigate this topic; produce a literature review of work previously done in the area of economic scenario modeling; determine appropriate data sources and methodologies to enhance economic modeling efforts relevant to the actuarial profession; and produce a working model of economic series, coordinated with interest rates, that could be made public and used by actuaries via the CAS/SoA websites to project future economic scenarios. Categories of economic series to be modeled included interest rates, equity price levels, inflation rates, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. In addition to providing the financial scenario generator model, this project also produced a set of output scenarios for these economic series that could be used directly in financial analysis. This work is summarized in Ahlgrim et al (2006).
The Life Capital Adequacy Subcommittee of the American Academy of Actuaries recommended in a series of reports (October 1999, December 2002, and June 2005) that life insurers implement new tests of capital adequacy which utilize stochastic models for scenario testing of variable products with guarantees. Although the ultimate recommendation is for each insurer to develop its own models, the AAA was encouraged to provide 10,000 pre-packaged scenarios that could be used as an alternative.
