Exchange rate fluctuations are regularly monitored with great interest by policy makers, practitioners and academics. It is not surprising, therefore, that exchange rate predictability has long been at the top of the research agenda in international finance. Starting with the seminal contribution of Meese and Rogoff (1983), a large body of empirical research finds that models which condition on economically meaningful variables do not provide reliable exchange rate forecasts. This has lead to the prevailing view that exchange rates follow a random walk and hence are not predictable, especially at short horizons.