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PDF Ebook The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Foreign Direct Investment in the United Kingdom

According to the theory of purchasing power parity, exchange-rate movements offset the effect of relative price changes on the terms of trade, thus serving as a stabilising influence on an economy’s external position, protecting real variables from local shocks. In practice, however, exchange-rates have deviated substantially and for lengthy periods from the rates implied by PPP, and in this case, exchange-rate movements, rather than serving to absorb real shocks (as in PPP), are potentially a cause of shocks23. An additional but separate issue of concern relates to the volatility of nominal and real exchange-rates, a marked feature of recent experience of flexible exchange-rate regimes. Various studies have emerged exploring the impact of exchange-rate volatility (and associated uncertainty) on investment and growth (discussed further below).

In this paper we extend the literature, using an original database to explore the relationship between foreign direct investment and exchange-rate variability, in respect of both the level and volatility of exchange-rates, for the case of the United Kingdom between 1997 and 2001. The case of the UK provides a particularly rich testbed for the theoretical predictions. As is well-known, between 1996 and 2000, the price of sterling against the Euro was subject to significant and sustained real appreciation (rising 25% at a time when inflation was higher in the UK than in countries of the Euro zone, and the UK had no external surplus). In addition, during this period, there has been considerable exchange-risk relative to Euro-competitor nations due to the UK’s non-participation in EMU, and the uncertainty over its willingness to join in the future. We examine the effect of these on FDI into According to the theory of purchasing power parity, exchange-rate movements offset the effect of relative price changes on the terms of trade, thus serving as a stabilising influence on an economy’s external position, protecting real variables from local shocks. In practice, however, exchange-rates have deviated substantially and for lengthy periods from the rates implied by PPP, and in this case, exchange-rate movements, rather than serving to absorb real shocks (as in PPP), are potentially a cause of shocks23.

Ebook Do mutual fund acquisitions affect shareholder wealth: empirical evidence?

An important question in financial economics is why financial intermediaries are so highly compensated, even with the intense competition between them and the uncertainty about whether they add value to investors. Whether active portfolio managers have skill and can obtain persistent positive abnormal returns has been the focus of debate in the mutual fund literature (Chevalier and Ellison, 1997, Carhart, 1997, Wermers, 2000). This has led researchers to question whether there is an opportunity for active mutual fund managers to create compensation for themselves despite the competition from other market participants. Thus far compensation received by managers has been attributed to an irrationally sluggish response by investors to mediocre performance, and the opportunistic exploitation of it by fund managers (Elton, Gruber and Busse, 2004). For instance, in the mutual fund industry investors do not withdraw funds in response to poor past performance to the same extent as they invest in response to superior performance. This asymmetry between inflows and fund performance has been documented in the results of Ippolito (1992), Sirri and Tufano (1992), and Chevalier and Ellison (1997). This evidence raises the possibility that fund complexes making acquisitions decisions may target “undervalued assets”, mutual funds with low objective-adjusted expense ratios, with the intent to increase the expense ratio and, hence, the fees the fund complex can extract from the acquisition target. However, an increase in expense ratios without a corresponding increase in returns of the target fund in the post-acquisition period should lead to a reduction in objective adjusted inflows by rational investors.

Several studies regard mutual fund shareholders as being smart investors (Gruber,1996, Zheng, 1999). For insistence, Barber, Odean, and Zheng (2005) contend that, overtime, investors have become increasingly aware of and averse to mutual fund costs. They find that investors readily avoid high front-end load and commissions costs and tolerate high operating expense costs. This occurs because front-end load fees and commissions are more obvious and salient. Consistent with this, Berk and Green (2004) present an alternative explanation where the ability to extract fees occurs as a natural consequence of learning and compensation goes to managers with investment talents. The implication of this is that if fund complexes acquire “undervalued assets” and subsequently attempt to extract compensation without a corresponding increase in benefits, investors, being smart, will “vote with their feet” by reducing their net flows to these funds in the post-acquisition period.

Ebook Financial Repression, Tax Evasion and Long-Run Monetary and Fiscal Policy Trade-Off in an Endogenous Growth Model with Transaction Costs

The impact of monetary and fiscal policies on long-run economic growth is an open issue of macroeconomic theory. Concerning monetary policy, most of standard “neoclassical” exogenous growth models conclude to some neutrality or “superneutrality” of money in steady-state (see Fischer, 1979), with the notable exception of Stockman (1981) cash-in-advance model, in which a money expansion reduces steady-state levels of capital and output, when (part of) investment expenditures are subject to the cash-in-advance (hereafter CIA) constraint. Concerning fiscal policy, results critically depends on the nature of government expenditures and on the way they are financed. Baxter & King (1993) introduce government consumption and public capital into the core Real Business Cycles model and show that increases in productive government spending can have very large effects on long run output because they increase the marginal product of private capital. However, this result is obtained on that assumption that these increases in productive government spending are financed by lump-sum taxes. Exploring different ways of government finance, Kamps (2004) shows that distorsionary taxes may discourage private investment, while there is trade off between short-run and long-run effects of deficit-financed increases in productive public spending.

However, these results only concern “neoclassical” models without endogenous growth in steady-state. Yet, establishing a relation between monetary and fiscal policies and long-run economic growth needs the use of endogenous growth models, which ensure the existence of a positive long-run economic growth path that can be affected by policy variables. Concerning fiscal policy, standard endogenous growth models show the existence of a threshold in the tax-rate to long-run economic growth relation, in link with the pioneer work of Barro (1990). In this model, productive public expenditures are financed by a flat tax rate on output. Increasing the tax rate implies a lower marginal net of taxes return of private capital, but since taxes finance public expenditures, which enhance private capital productivity, one can find a tax rate that maximizes economic growth in the long-run. This tax ceiling sums up the trade-off between the above mentioned conflicting effects.

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