The aim of this paper is to study how financial structures and monetary policy regimes (including exchange rate regimes) affect the pattern of business cycle correlation across countries. More specifically, I propose a unitary framework in which international business cycle co-movements are explained jointly by the differences between the financial systems and by the monetary policy regime adopted by the countries concerned.
The European Union is a prime example where my analysis is likely to be relevant. The 12 countries of the euro area have adopted a single currency but are still characterized by different financial structures, as a result of history, legal frameworks, collective preferences and politics. Financial regulations, legislation and bank supervisory policies of these countries have not been unified but remain largely under national control โ though pressures towards harmonization and the adoption of common standards, partly as a result of the single currency, are mounting. Of the remaining EU members, many (including several new entrants from Central and Eastern Europe) will adopt the euro before or around the end of this decade, and also in preparation for that are introducing financial market reforms. This process of currency unification and financial reform taking place at continental level provides an ideal testing ground for my theory. Examining the implications of this for business cycles is clearly important for many reasons, e.g. to determine the optimal monetary policy and to study the welfare properties of the currency area.