Several stylized facts appear well established: (i) there is significant churning of firms even in mature industries; (ii) entrants are typically small compared to incumbents and have low survival probabilities; (iii) typical exiting firm is small and young; and (iv) larger firms tend to be older with higher survival probabilities. Given these findings, identifying the forces that drive industry dynamics and the evolution of firm size distribution has taken on renewed interest. The relatively recent literature has tended to focus on technological change as the key driving force. The primary objective of this paper is to assess the role played by uncertainty and sunk costs on the intertemporal dynamics of industry structure.
Uncertainty and sunk costs imply an option value of waiting which alters the entry and exit trigger prices (Dixit, 1989; Dixit and Pindyck, 1994; Caballero and Pindyck, 1996). This suggests that the option value channel may be an important determinant of entry, exit and industry dynamics (Section II(i)). A second channel via which uncertainty and sunk costs may affect industry dynamics is financial market frictions (e.g., Greenwald and Stiglitz, 1990; Williamson, 1988; Cooley and Quadrini, 2000; Cabral and Mata, 2001). This literature suggests that uncertainty and sunk costs exacerbate financing constraints, affecting decisions of entrants and incumbents (Section II(ii)). Our study is motivated by the fact that while the theory linking uncertainty and sunk costs to industry dynamics is relatively well developed, empirical evaluation of these models appears limited. Finally, since the literature has shown innovation to be a key determinant of industry dynamics, our empirical analysis also examines the role played by technological change (Section III).