It is ironic that while millions of people are dying of starvation each year in most parts of the world, many Americans are dying as an indirect result of an overabundance of food. Further, billions of dollars are spent each year overfeeding the American public, which then leads to the spending of billions of dollars more each year on various weight loss methods. This review will investigate various aspects of overweight and obesity, and show how they are affected by physical activity. But first, we must define and differentiate between the terms overweight and obesity.
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The aggregate stock market index and the exchange rate are known to have a very low correlation with any other measurable macroeconomic variable except at very low frequencies (Frankel and Rose (1995), Rogoff (2001)). Financial economists interpret this very lack of predictability as evidence for efficiency, whereby only unpredictable news should move prices. But even gathering proxy variables for news ex-post does not seem to substantially increase the explanatory power of asset pricing models (Roll (1988)). This motivates us to examine a new financial market variable called order flow in its relationship to stock and exchange rate returns. Order flow is the net of buy minus sell initiated orders. In the foreign exchange market, daily exchange rate returns and daily order flow show a remarkably high correlation (Evans and Lyons (2002a, 2002b, 2002c) and Killeen, Lyons and Moore (2006)) and even permanent changes in the exchange rate appear to be explained by order flow. Unfortunately, most of the microstructure literature features order flow as an exogenous variable in a single market setting. Its very origin remains unexplained and this lack of economic structure constrains the analysis. In particular, issues of market interdependence between different international stock markets are generally ignored.
This paper contributes to the existing literature in four dimensions. First, we provide a market model in which order flow is the result of belief changes of various investor groups. This allows for a structural interpretation of order flow regressions. Second, we model a two country multi-market setting in which we can explore the relationship between equity, exchange rate and bond markets. In particular, we obtain testable restrictions which link equity returns to the various order flows. We explicitly model exchange rate determination unlike much of the international investment literature (see Albuquerque, Rui, Bauer and Schneider (2006)). Thirdly, we show that our empirical framework explains up to 60 percent of the daily return variations in the S&P 100 index. In accordance with the theory, both exchange rate returns and order flow into the overseas market have explanatory power for the domestic stock market returns. Fourth, our model can explain the asymmetry in the correlation structure of equity returns and exchange rates. U.S. equity market appreciations typically come with U.S. dollar appreciations, while European equity market returns correlate negatively with Euro appreciations.
