This paper presents a model to study the dynamics of a currency crisis associated with a fiscal imbalance, defined as current or anticipated future decline in real primary surpluses. The model analyses the stock and maturity of nominal government liabilities as key determinants of the magnitude and predictability of the crisis. In our analysis, bond prices react to fiscal shocks, generating an unanticipated wealth transfer from the private to the public sector.
Provided the stock of long0term nominal liabilities is large enough, such transfer can guarantee, by itself, that the intertemporal government budget constraint holds with temporary price and exchange rate stability. Thus, a large stock of long0term nominal liabilities may help a government that, for any reason, does not want to let the currency depreciate immediately in the face of a destabilizing fiscal shock.