The effects of monetary policy shocks have been studied extensively on data for the U.S. economy, see e.g. Leeper, Sims and Zha (1996) and Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (1999). The consensus in this literature seems to be that a contractionary shock to monetary policy (i.e. an unanticipated increase in the fed funds rate) leads to “hump-shaped” decreases in output and inflation with peak responses after 1-2 years’ time. In empirical studies of open economies, there seems to be less consensus about the effects of monetary policy shocks, see e.g. Jacobson et al. (2002) and the references therein.
One natural question to ask is why it is interesting to study the effects of monetary policy shocks empirically. One obvious answer is that given the institutional setup in many countries where central banks have been assigned the task of stabilizing inflation using some kind of nominal interest rate as instrument, we want to understand if and how monetary policy affects the economy. In addition to establishing a nominal anchor (i.e an inflation target level), we want to know if movements in nominal interest rates matter for the short-run movements in aggregate quantities and prices. Unfortunately, theory cannot provide a clear cut answer to this question because it is possible to write down plausible theoretical models with very different implications regarding the real effects of monetary policy. This is the reason why I want to examine what the data suggest. Another answer to the question is that the data seem to reveal a lot of information that can be used to distinguish between competing theoretical models. Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (2001) argue that in order for a dynamic general equilibrium model to fit the estimated impulse response functions to a monetary policy shock, it needs to include adjustment costs to capital, habit persistence in consumer preferences, variable capacity utilization and sticky wages (Calvo style wage setting).