The objective of the paper is to investigate the interaction between macroeconomic cycles and microeconomic shocks, focusing on the firm level. In particular we consider how the financial fragility of firms affects the business cycle, which may itself determine the financial situation of firms. Such a question is in particular relevant in two areas: first in terms of macroeconomic forecasting with a view to incorporating information at the microeconomic level; second, for the implementation of stress tests where one considers the response of the financial sector to large macroeconomic shocks.
As usually acknowledged, the drawback of the latter approach is that these tests are usually carried out in a static way, omitting the socalled second round effects of the shocks to the real economy : a given initial macroeconomic shock impacts on the financial situation of firms, which then affects macroeconomic variables. The contribution of the paper is therefore to study the transmission of shocks, and in particular those measuring financial fragility, as defined by the likelihood of corporate defaults.