We conducted this economic analysis at the request of USDA-APHIS-PPQ-EDP. Our objective was to quantitatively characterize the annual economic costs that the light brown apple moth (LBAM), Epiphyas postvittana, could cause to U.S. apple, grape, orange and pear crops if it were to establish throughout its potential range in the conterminous United States. This information can be used to inform regulatory policy and funding decisions regarding LBAM.
LBAM is a polyphagous multivoltine tortricid moth (Johnson et al., 2007). It is a significant agricultural and nursery pest in Australia and New Zealand where it attacks a variety of hosts including: citrus, grapes, pome fruits and stone fruits. LBAM damages hosts by feeding on the leaves, fruit and stems and can cause both internal and external fruit damage. If left untreated, LBAM crop damage levels have been estimated to be as high as 40 to 90 percent (Sutherst, 2000).
In March of 2007, the USDA confirmed LBAM’s presence in California (Johnson et al., 2007; USDA-APHIS, 2009, 2009a). Trapping evidence indicated that LBAM may have been present in California since 2006 (USDA-APHIS, 2007). The LBAM confirmation resulted in the implementation of a joint emergency response by the USDA, CDFA and affected counties. As of April 22, 2009, LBAM is considered present in 15 California counties and eradicated in Los Angeles County and San Luis Obispo County (Carpenter pers. comm., 2009; NAPIS, 2009; USDA-APHIS, 2009a) (Figure 1).
LBAM’s detection in California has resulted in surveys, quarantines and aerial control programs. Because LBAM can be transported via agricultural and nursery stock pathways (Johnson et al., 2000; USDA-APHIS, 2007a), it has the potential to spread long distances outside of the quarantined area and cause additional economic losses. In this analysis we characterized the potential annual economic losses to U.S. apples, grapes, oranges and pears due to LBAM damage, control costs, quarantines and research if it were to be introduced into the conterminous United States. We did not analyze potential economic losses to sectors outside of agricultural production, e.g. trade.
Contents
I. Introduction
- A. Geospatial Analysis of U.S. At-Risk Areas Based on Climate and Hosts
B. Quantitative Economic Analysis
- 1. Quantitative Model
III. Results and Discussion
IV. Reviewers
V. Acknowledgements
VI. Literature Cited
VII. Appendices
