Ebook Dropouts in the Denver Public Schools: Early Warning Signals and Possibilities for Prevention and Recovery
The research reported here was conducted as a foundational analysis component of the Colorado Statewide Dropout Initiative. Created in January 2008 as a response to Governor Ritter’s goal of cutting the state’s dropout rate in half within the next ten years, the State Dropout Initiative is a partnership of several education advocacy organizations and other non-profit organizations. These include the Colorado Children’s Campaign, the Partnership for Families and Children (and the associated National Center for Student Engagement), and Colorado Youth for a Change, together with representatives from the Colorado Department of Education, several Colorado school districts, and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Social Organization of Schools. Funding for this research was provided by the Donnell Kay Foundation.
Understanding the dropout problem in a community is an important first step in developing and implementing plans to reduce the number of dropouts and increase the graduation rate. This study of dropouts in Denver Public Schools is part of a larger study of factors predicting a dropout outcome from Colorado high schools. Its goal is to provide data for district decision making as well as recommendations for targeting interventions to increase the high school graduation rate and reduce the dropout rate. The study sought to go beyond a demographic snapshot of students who dropped out of school to identify behavioral warning signals prior to a dropout outcome. Knowing these early warning signals (e.g., problems with attendance, behavior, or course failure) could help inform district planning for interventions that could address some of the reasons behind a dropout outcome.
This research was conducted using district administrative data (described more fully in Section 7). After describing demographic and behavioral characteristics of the dropouts in 2006-07 (Section 2), we turn to an analysis of both 9 th graders (Section 3) and middle school students (Section 4) in 2006-07 to examine how many students are currently displaying early warning signals of a potential dropout outcome. We conclude with a summary of findings (Section 5) and some recommendations (Section 6) for steps the district could potentially take to identify and address these early warning signals. Our recommendations include specific suggestions for possible interventions to increase attendance and reduce both problem behavior and course failure. In Section 7 we provide more technical explanations of the limitations of the study and additional statistical analyses based on outcomes for the 2003-04 cohort of 9 th graders (the class of 2007).
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Characteristics of the 2006-07 Dropouts
3. Dropout Risk Indicators among 2006-07 Ninth Graders
4. Dropout Risk Indicators among 2006-07 Middle School Students
5. Conclusions
6. Recommendations
7. Technical Appendices
- Limitations to the Study
Modeling Graduation, Non-graduation, and Dropout Outcomes
References
Ninth Grade Early Warning Signals in 2006-07: School Reports
Middle Grades Early Warning Signals in 2006-07: School Reports
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